Following the recent mayoral and local council elections in England, profound shifts in the political arena are underway. Across the country, Labour is emerging as the clear front runner and the Liberal Democrats are witnessing notable gains.
The recent string of Conservative parliamentary by-election defeats, accentuated by their May 2 defeat in Blackpool set the scene for the local elections where they lost 474 seats.
However, Labour’s dominance (+186 seats) is met with complexities arising from international affairs which have bolstered the Green party (+74) and independents (+93). It remains to be seen how this will play out and whether this will hinder Labour’s march to power when the general election comes around.
Against this backdrop, Labour appears to be in a very comfortable position, having won 10 of the 11 contested seats, and Ben Houchen for Tees Valley the only Conservative to retain his post. Sadiq Khan’s historic re-election for London, together with those of Andy Burnham’s for Greater Manchester and Steve Rotheram’s for Liverpool City, signals a continuation of established leadership in key metropolitan areas. These outcomes serve as islands of continuity amidst a sea of political change.
Resignations at Westminster
The shifting political landscape is further underscored by a wave of MP resignations at Westminster. When former prime minister Theresa May announced her imminent departure from Westminster in early March, she became the highest-profile of 100 MPs to reveal they were not standing for re-election.
The list includes other prominent figures such as Kwasi Kwarteng, Sajid Javid, and Dominic Raab for the Conservatives, and Nick Brown, Margaret Beckett and Harriet Harman for Labour.
The impending influx of replacement MPs is set to exceed 120. These resignations and projections of a significant Labour victory will usher a deluge of new faces in the Commons. After fourteen years of Conservative government, Brexit, and the Pandemic, an upcoming election presents an opportunity to rewrite the parliamentary agenda for years to come.
Adapting to change
Amidst these changes, public affairs professionals and lobbyists face practical challenges in navigating the evolving political climate. With as many as 300 new MPs expected, the need to establish new relationships and adapt to reshuffled select committees and all-party groups is paramount.
But while it can be a blow to lose MPs who were sympathetic to the cause, a change of personnel also presents the opportunity to build new and better relationships.
And with the average tenure of an MP reaching 13 years, investing in these relationships can provide returns well into the middle of the next decade.
Unlike recent snap elections in 2017 and 2019, there is a longer runway to this election, which is likely to take place in the autumn and is potentially still six months away.
Yet the majority of candidates with a realistic chance of winning (something that Polimapper’s Candidate Connect database can help you identify) have already been selected, so there’s an opportunity to get ahead of the game and start building relationships now.
Complexities of Boundary Redrawing
On top of this vast turnover of personnel, the redrawing of constituency boundaries adds another layer of complexity.
With only 55 out of 533 constituencies remaining unaffected in England, and reductions in constituency numbers observed in Scotland and Wales, the reshuffling of boundaries will have far-reaching implications.
The scale of challenge this poses is very organisation specific, but one thing is for certain, any existing constituency based data and profiles have a very limited lifespan.
Recalibration to new constituency boundaries can seem daunting, and the method varies widely depending on the data concerned.
Postcode based data can be reassigned to new constituencies through lookups (we have a lookup tool for just this process). Data on prevalence of illness can be remapped using estimates based on population.
For some data types the House of Commons library provides a lookup from old to new constituencies that will do a job. For others it will be better to retrace the data back to the smallest geographical area for which it’s available, and recalculate it from there.
One thing is for certain, the ability to highlight why a new MP should listen to your asks will be crucial, and communicating local data in an effective manner is key to achieving this.
Localising Narratives
At Polimapper, we continually stress the need to ‘localise’ narratives, by taking countrywide messages and communicating them through a local prism.
By localising your narratives – whether in terms of the number of jobs your industry supports, or how much value it brings to an area – you can answer the question: ‘why does this matter to me’.
By harnessing local data and presenting it in a visually engaging way to get the attention of parliamentary candidates and eventually new MPs, you can begin to master the challenges of the changing political landscape, and take advantage of the opportunities it brings.
If you’re looking at ways to map your industry against the new parliamentary boundaries, to learn more about the professional backgrounds of key parliamentary candidates, and to provide them with visually engaging narratives about your industry, get in touch with Polimapper today.