The 2024 general election represents the best opportunity to influence public policy in a quarter of a century.
This is due to the scale of change that we’re about to witness at Westminster.
Post general election, the number of new MPs is likely to reach levels not seen since 1945.
The sensibilities of the new intake will define policy decisions well into the 2030s on headline issues such as drugs, net zero, assisted dying and right across the policy spectrum.
And with the vast majority of election candidates in winnable seats already in position, the time to start influencing policy is now.
Yes we’re still in all likelihood 6-7 months away from polling day, but the closer we get, the more candidates will be spending their time campaigning on the ground.
So if you’re looking to get out and meet candidates, or undertake supporter-to-candidate e-actions, there is no time to lose.
MPs stepping down
When in early March former prime minister Theresa May announced she was quitting Westminster, she became the highest profile MP to announce their intention to step down ahead of the general election.
The total has already reached 100, a number not seen since 2010, and includes 67 Conservative MPs: two former chancellors, Kwasi Kwarteng and Sajid Javid; former deputy PM and foreign secretary Dominic Raab; former defence secretary Ben Wallace; and Alok Sharma, the former Cop26 president.
Nick Brown, Harriet Harman and Margaret Beckett, who all served as ministers under New Labour, are also stepping down.
Adding the retirees to MPs who have been deselected and displaced, the number of replacement MPs after the next general election will already exceed 120.
And that’s before we take account of the polls, which point towards a reversal of the Conservative and SNP landslides in 2019, to be supplanted by a Labour landslide.
The last time the number of new MPs breached one third of the total was in the Labour landslide of 1997, when it totalled 37%.
Projections by Polimapper show that even a moderate Labour win this time around would match that 37% figure for new MPs. With a bigger Labour win, the number of new MPs would almost certainly surpass 40%.
The median length of service for an MP is 13 years, so the new cohort is very likely to be having their say on the direction of the UK well into the 2030s.
For more detail on the make-up of the Class of 24, you can read our previous post where we’ve covered that.
Snap elections in 2017 and 2019 provided little time to prepare and influence the parliamentary agenda, allied to the narrative being dominated by Brexit.
So the next general election – and the lengthy run up to it – represents the first opportunity for nearly 10 years to really influence the agenda.
Email-to-candidate actions
Supporter-to-candidate campaigns have long been a successful way of bringing pressure to bear on elected representatives.
For candidates without previous experience of parliament, now is the time on their political journey they’re most eager to listen and learn. After all, they’re looking to secure the votes of their constituents to ensure they are elected.
In this respect, supporter-to-candidate campaigns are a way of both raising awareness of issues, and securing commitments and pledges, especially in marginal seats.
Post-election, these pledges can be used to hold MPs to account and ensure they keep to their pre-election commitments to their constituents.
Unlike supporter-to-MP campaigns, supporter-to-candidate campaigns can be difficult to set up due to the sheer numbers of candidates and contact data that need to be collated.
This year there is the added complication that the parliamentary boundaries have changed, so the current boundaries don’t map neatly to the boundaries on which the election will be fought.
These factors combined present technical challenges and costly complications for e-action software providers.
But charities and trade associations need to be able to undertake e-actions ahead of the election, and the moment one is called is too late for many – not least because this is when candidates are at their busiest securing votes on the doorstep.
So if you’re considering a supporter-to-candidate email campaign, don’t delay, get in touch with Polimapper today for a demo of Candidate Engage.